Short disclaimer: this newsletter become written after gameweek 17 of the english most efficient league, and so our figures are taken at this point. There had been one hundred seventy top-rated league matches played at the time of writing, and it is easy sufficient to find out the success fees of each sort of wager: both teams to score has landed in ninety five fits, or fifty six% to be specific. Over 2. Five goals has landed in ninety two fits, or fifty four%. And, to illuminate our argument, we can also upload a few correct scores into the mix: the 1-1 scoreline has landed in 24 matches, or 14%. The two-1 scoreline has landed in 27 suits, or sixteen%. The 3-1 scoreline has landed in 16 fits, or 10%. Up to now, so properly. Really, the btts and over 2. Five markets are nearly equal in phrases in their likelihood of landing in more or less one in matches, even as precise scorelines like 2-1 and 3-1 are plenty much less prevalent. But what occurs if we take fits that in particular quit with each groups scoring: how frequently do the ones finish 2-1 or 3-1? Scoreline range of matches % 1-1 24 24% 2-1 28 27% 2-2 five 5% 3-1 15 15% other 30 29% this is vital, due to the fact surely there are some furnishings that earlier than a ball has even been kicked we suppose ‘hmm, this one has got btts written throughout it.’ of those suits, about a half of cease both 1-1 or 2-1. There's an critical caveat right here: with the two-1 and three-1 stats above, we've grouped collectively the home group triumphing by means of that scoreline with the away crew doing so. However normally, we will expect with a few accuracy which of the groups goes to win 2-1 or three-1 and which is going to lose by using that margin.